Forward Glance

Strategy Report – Medium Portfolio

February 2020

1st November 2011 – 31st January 2020 – gross return since inception

Strategy

The investment committee met on the 4th February. Central to our agenda are the issues of the Coronavirus, Brexit negotiations and the evolution of the US presidential election.

The view on the virus is that it is too early to tell in terms of long-term impact on global economic activity and it was decided to remain invested albeit we also agreed to move some of our cash holdings to fixed interest investments in UK government stock to provide a better yield and lower volatility.

A longer-term view of the virus is that it may well accentuate the speed of change in eating habits, shopping habits and sadly protectionism. We will monitor these issues very carefully in the coming months.

Despite everything that is going on with BREXIT, the clear fact is that the UK economy is performing better than Europe and ironically this may lead to an increase in interest rates later on this year in the UK while the EU remains very stagnant. It is of significant note that France, Italy and possibly Germany are now living with contracting GDP while the UK is expanding its GDP.

Our next meeting occurs on 10th March, the day before Budget day, when we feel there may be some significant changes in taxation and possibly the introduction of a wealth tax. We will comment more clearly on this post the 11th March.

The committee felt that the dispute about Huawei was overrated and will subside; it is more about politicking than reality, however worrying we find the insidious evolution of technological influence in all our lives.

The committee also recognised a willingness for politicians to manipulate personal aspiration and an overall lack of trust in government which is likely to exacerbate the volatility of political outcome during the course of this year and in particular in the US presidential election.

We remain focused therefore on our long-term investment objectives which remain constant at this time and which have proved to be very resilient and attractively profitable for all of our clients.

Portfolio analysis

Investment objectives

The medium portfolio offers a diverse fund range with the aim of achieving capital growth over the longer-term. The portfolio has the ability to invest in a broad range of investments on a wide geographical basis. Equity exposure within this portfolio will vary between 40% – 65%.

Portfolio details

Inception date1/11/2011
Number of holdings31
Estimate yield2.03%
BenchmarkBoE Base Rate + 2%
Total expense ratio0.50% (net-clean)
Volatility target range6% – 10%
Minimum investment time horizonFive years

Contribution to performance by fund – 1 year

1st August 2019 – 31st January 2020 – gross return (six months)

Gross statistics – 1st November 2011 – 31st January 2020